本文为阅读《巴菲特致股东信》系列 2024 年部分，主要摘录 2024.02.24 发布的致股东信中关于投资市场的现状与特点，伯克希尔的投资策略与原则，持有和回购策略，长期投资的案例分享，外汇和债务管理经验等内容。

往期回顾

投资市场

  • 市场短期如投票机，长期如称重机。
  • 现今市场更像赌场。
  • 华尔街在狂热时推销愚蠢的东西。

As Ben Graham taught me, “In the short run the market acts as a voting machine; in the long run it becomes a weighing machine.”

正如本-格雷厄姆（Ben Graham）教导我的，从短期来看，市场就像一台投票机；从长期来看，它就成了一台称重机。



Though the stock market is massively larger than it was in our early years, today’s active participants are neither more emotionally stable nor better taught than when I was in school. For whatever reasons, markets now exhibit far more casino-like behavior than they did when I was young. The casino now resides in many homes and daily tempts the occupants.

虽然股票市场比我们早年大得多，但今天的活跃市场参与者既不比我在学校时情绪更稳定，也不比我在学校时受过更好的教育。不管出于什么原因，现在的市场表现出比我年轻时更像赌场，赌场现在存在于许多家庭中，每天都在诱惑着居民。



One fact of financial life should never be forgotten. Wall Street – to use the term in its figurative sense – would like its customers to make money, but what truly causes its denizens’ juices to flow is feverish activity. At such times, whatever foolishness can be marketed will be vigorously marketed – not by everyone but always by someone.

金融活动中的一个事实永远不应该被忘记。华尔街——用这个词的比喻意义来说——希望它的客户赚钱，但真正让它的客户热血沸腾的是狂热的活动。在这种时候，任何一样可以被推销的愚蠢的东西都会被大力推销，不是每个人都这么做，但总是有人这么做。

投资策略与原则

  • 拥有经济效益良好且持久的企业。
  • 偏爱未来高回报的稀有企业。
  • 追求两个关键条件的组合，规模和竞争加剧是挑战。
  • 希望由能干和值得信赖的管理者运营。
  • 永远不冒资本永久性损失的风险。

Our goal at Berkshire is simple: We want to own either all or a portion of businesses that enjoy good economics that are fundamental and enduring. Within capitalism, some businesses will flourish for a very long time while others will prove to be sinkholes. It’s harder than you would think to predict which will be the winners and losers. And those who tell you they know the answer are usually either self-delusional or snake-oil salesmen.

我们在伯克希尔的目标很简单：我们希望拥全部或部分经济效益良好、基本且持久的企业。在资本主义中，一些企业会长期蓬勃发展，而另一些则会被证明是个“无底洞”。要预测哪些企业会成为赢家、哪些会成为大输家比你想象的要困难得多。那些声称他们知道答案的人要么是自欺欺人，要么就是江湖郎中。



At Berkshire, we particularly favor the rare enterprise that can deploy additional capital at high returns in the future. Owning only one of these companies – and simply sitting tight – can deliver wealth almost beyond measure. Even heirs to such a holding can – ugh! – sometimes live a lifetime of leisure.

在伯克希尔，我们特别青睐那些未来能够以高回报率投入额外资本的稀有企业，拥有一家这样的公司，然后静静地坐着，几乎可以创造无法估量的财富，甚至是持有者的继承人也有时可以过上一辈子的悠闲生活。



This combination of the two necessities I’ve described for acquiring businesses has for long been our goal in purchases and, for a while, we had an abundance of candidates to evaluate. If I missed one – and I missed plenty – another always came along. Those days are long behind us; size did us in, though increased competition for purchases was also a factor.

长期以来，伯克希尔在寻找收购目标时追求两个关键条件的组合，有一段时间，我们有大量的候选者需要评估，如果我错过了一个——而我错过了很多——另一个总会出现。但那些日子早已过去；规模让我们陷入困境，同时收购竞争加剧也是一个因素。



We also hope these favored businesses are run by able and trustworthy managers, though that is a more difficult judgment to make, however, and Berkshire has had its share of disappointments.

我们也希望这些受青睐的企业由能干和值得信赖的管理者运营，这更难做出判断。伯克希尔在这方面也有过失望。



One investment rule at Berkshire has not and will not change: Never risk permanent loss of capital. Thanks to the American tailwind and the power of compound interest, the arena in which we operate has been – and will be – rewarding if you make a couple of good decisions during a lifetime and avoid serious mistakes.

伯克希尔的一条投资规则从未改变也不会改变：永远不冒资本永久性损失的风险。 得益于美国的顺风和复利的力量，如果你在一生中做出了几个正确的决定，避免了严重的错误，那么我们经营的领域一直是而且将会得到回报。

持有和回购策略

  • 持有大量现金和国债，在危机中依赖自有资金。
  • 股票回购应取决于价格，高溢价回购是愚蠢的。

Your company also holds a cash and U.S. Treasury bill position far in excess of what conventional wisdom deems necessary. During the 2008 panic, Berkshire generated cash from operations and did not rely in any manner on commercial paper, bank lines or debt markets. We did not predict the time of an economic paralysis but we were always prepared for one.

你们的公司持有的现金和美国国债数量也远远超出了传统观点所认为的必要水平。在2008年的恐慌中，伯克希尔从运营中获得现金，没有以任何方式依赖商业票据、银行贷款或债券市场。我们没有预测到发生经济危机的准确时间，但我们总是为此做好准备。



Such repurchases work to increase your participation in every asset that Berkshire owns. To this obvious but often overlooked truth, I add my usual caveat: All stock repurchases should be price-dependent. What is sensible at a discount to business-value becomes stupid if done at a premium.

这种回购有助于增加您对伯克希尔所拥有的每项资产的参与。对于这个显而易见但经常被忽视的事实，我还要加上我一贯的告诫：所有的股票回购都应该取决于价格。如果以高于商业价值的价格回购股票，那么明智的做法就会变得愚蠢。

长期投资

  • 发现出色企业时坚持投资，耐心有回报。
  • 计划长期持有的投资，包括西方石油。
  • Vicki Hollub 领导下的西方石油为股东和国家做正确的事情。

The lesson from Coke and AMEX? When you find a truly wonderful business, stick with it. Patience pays, and one wonderful business can offset the many mediocre decisions that are inevitable.

可口可乐和美国运通给我们的启示是什么？当你发现一家真正出色的企业时，请坚持投资下去。耐心总是有回报的，选择一个出色的企业可以对冲掉许多不可避免的糟糕决策。



This year, I would like to describe two other investments that we expect to maintain indefinitely. Like Coke and AMEX, these commitments are not huge relative to our resources. They are worthwhile, however, and we were able to increase both positions during 2023. At yearend, Berkshire owned 27.8% of Occidental Petroleum’s common shares and also owned warrants that, for more than five years, give us the option to materially increase our ownership at a fixed price.

今年，我想介绍另外两项我们计划将无限期维持的投资。与可口可乐和美国运通一样，相对于我们拥有的资源而言，这些投资投入并不巨大。但它们是值得的，而且我们能够在 2023 年增加这两项投资的仓位。截至年底，伯克希尔持有西方石油公司27.8%的普通股，同时还持有认股权证，在五年多的时间里，我们可以选择以固定价格大幅增持股份。



Under Vicki Hollub’s leadership, Occidental is doing the right things for both its country and its owners. No one knows what oil prices will do over the next month, year, or decade. But Vicki does know how to separate oil from rock, and that’s an uncommon talent, valuable to her shareholders and to her country.

在Vicki Hollub（西方石油总裁兼CEO）的领导下，西方石油正在为美国和股东做正确的事情。没有人知道未来一个月、一年或十年油价会如何变化。但 Vicki 确实知道如何将石油和岩石分离开来，这是一种非同寻常的才能，对她的股东和她的国家都很有价值。

外汇和债务管理

  • 不预测货币市场价格，通过日元债券融资，日元贬值带来收益。
  • 避开不合适的保险业务和人员，承保人不能是乐观主义者。

Neither Greg nor I believe we can forecast market prices of major currencies. We also don’t believe we can hire anyone with this ability. Therefore, Berkshire has financed most of its Japanese position with the proceeds from ¥1.3 trillion of bonds. This debt has been very well-received in Japan, and I believe Berkshire has more yen-denominated debt outstanding than any other American company. The weakened yen has produced a yearend gain for Berkshire of $1.9 billion, a sum that, pursuant to GAAP rules, has periodically been recognized in income over the 2020-23 period.

Greg和我都不相信我们能预测主要货币的市场价格，我们也不相信能雇到有这种能力的人才。因此，伯克希尔通过发行1.3万亿日元债券为其在日本的大部分头寸提供资金。这些债券在日本很受欢迎，我相信伯克希尔的未偿日元债务比任何其他美国公司都要多。日元贬值为伯克希尔带来了19亿美元的年终收益，根据美国通用会计准则，这笔收益将定期计入2020-23年期间的收益。



Beyond that, we have learned – too often, painfully – a good deal about what types of insurance business and what sort of people to avoid. The most important lesson is that our underwriters can be thin, fat, male, female, young, old, foreign or domestic. But they can’t be optimists at the office, however desirable that quality may generally be in life.

除此之外，我们还学到了–往往是痛苦地学到了–应该避开哪些类型的保险业务和哪些人。保险业务最重要的教训是，我们的承保人可以是瘦的、胖的、男的、女的、年轻的、年老的、外国的或国内的。但在办公室里，他们不能是乐观主义者，无论这种品质在生活中通常多么令人向往。

其他

  • 人很难看透，真诚和同情容易伪造。
  • 今年查理将缺席股东大会。
  • 发布第四版《穷查理年鉴》。

People are not that easy to read. Sincerity and empathy can easily be faked. That is as true now as it was in 1863.

人不是那么容易看透的，真诚和同情很容易伪造，现在和1863年一样。



Missing from the stage this year will be Charlie. He and I were both born in Omaha about two miles from where you will sit at our May get-together. In his first ten years, Charlie lived about a half-mile from where Berkshire has long maintained its office. Both Charlie and I spent our early years in Omaha public schools and were indelibly shaped by our Omaha childhood. We didn’t meet, however, until much later. (A footnote that may surprise you: Charlie lived under 15 of America’s 45 presidents. People refer to President Biden as #46, but that numbering counts Grover Cleveland as both #22 and #24 because his terms were not consecutive. America is a very young country.)

今年查理将缺席，他和我都出生在奥马哈，大概距离五月股东大会两英里的地方。在他出生后的头十年里，查理住的地方离伯克希尔长期以来的办公室只有半英里远。查理和我的童年都在奥马哈的公立学校度过，奥马哈的童年给我们留下了不可磨灭的影响。然而，直到很久以后，我们才认识。(一个可能会让你惊讶的脚注：在美国45位总统中，查理经历了15位总统，人们把拜登总统称为第46位，这一编号把格罗弗-克利夫兰算作第22位和第24位总统，因为他的任期不是连续的。美国是一个非常年轻的国家。）



To top things off, we will have available the new 4th edition of Poor Charlie’s Almanack. Pick up a copy. Charlie’s wisdom will improve your life as it has mine.

最重要的是，我们将推出第四版《穷查理年鉴》 。拿起一本，查理的智慧将改善你的生活，就像当初改变我的生活一样。