摘抄：巴菲特致股东信2021
开一个合集，记录巴菲特致股东信中的重点内容。
为什么应该阅读伯克希尔致股东信？
沃伦·巴菲特的致股东信被全球许多投资者、商业领袖和经济学家誉为宝贵的知识来源，他们每年都期待阅读这些信件。通过阅读巴菲特的致股东信，我们可以获取以下信息和见解：
- 投资策略：巴菲特是世界上最知名和最成功的投资者之一，他的信件提供了他的投资哲学和策略的深入理解。他重视价值投资，强调长期投资和耐心。
- 经济和市场见解：巴菲特的致股东信常常包括他对当前经济环境和市场情况的观察和预测，这对于理解全球经济和金融市场的动态非常有价值。
- 企业管理和决策：巴菲特的信件不仅关注投资策略，还提供了有关公司治理、业务运营和风险管理的见解。他透明地分享了他的决策过程，帮助读者理解成功的企业管理。
- 伯克希尔·哈撒韦的业务和财务状况：巴菲特的信件详细介绍了伯克希尔·哈撒韦的业务策略和财务状况，包括其各个子公司的运营状况和表现。
- 人生和商业智慧：巴菲特的致股东信充满了人生和商业智慧。他的信件不仅提供了实质性的投资和商业建议，还包含了他对人生和商业的深刻见解。
- 财务教育：巴菲特的写作风格通俗易懂，他清晰地解释了复杂的财务概念和术语，这对于那些希望提高自己财务知识和理解能力的人来说非常有帮助。
从哪里找到巴菲特致股东信？
巴菲特的致股东信通常在每年伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的年报中发布。可以在伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的官方网站上找到从1977年至今的所有信件。链接：https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/letters.html
原文摘抄
Over time, conglomerates have generally limited themselves to buying businesses in their entirety. That strategy, however, came with two major problems. One was unsolvable: Most of the truly great businesses had no interest in having anyone take them over. Consequently, deal-hungry conglomerateurs had to focus on so-so companies that lacked important and durable competitive strengths. That was not a great pond in which to fish.
Beyond that, as conglomerateurs dipped into this universe of mediocre businesses, they often found themselves required to pay staggering “control” premiums to snare their quarry. Aspiring conglomerateurs knew the answer to this “overpayment” problem: They simply needed to manufacture a vastly overvalued stock of their own that could be used as a “currency” for pricey acquisitions. (“I’ll pay you 10,000 for your dog by giving you two of my 5,000 cats.”)
Often, the tools for fostering the overvaluation of a conglomerate’s stock involved promotional techniques and “imaginative” accounting maneuvers that were, at best, deceptive and that sometimes crossed the line into fraud. When these tricks were “successful,” the conglomerate pushed its own stock to, say, 3x its business value in order to offer the target 2x its value.
nvesting illusions can continue for a surprisingly long time. Wall Street loves the fees that deal-making generates, and the press loves the stories that colorful promoters provide. At a point, also, the soaring price of a promoted stock can itself become the “proof” that an illusion is reality.
Eventually, of course, the party ends, and many business “emperors” are found to have no clothes. Financial history is replete with the names of famous conglomerateurs who were initially lionized as business geniuses by journalists, analysts and investment bankers, but whose creations ended up as business junkyards.
长时间以来，大型联合企业常常谋求整体收购一家企业。但这种策略带来了两个显著问题。
首先，大多数真正伟大的企业没有兴趣让任何人接管它们。因此，大型联合企业只能将收购重点放在不太重要、缺乏持久竞争优势的公司上，因而，“收购池”里充斥着平庸的企业，不是一个适合钓肥鱼的池塘。
然后，当企业集团想要在这个池子里捕猎的时候，往往需要支付惊人的溢价。有抱负的企业集团想出了解决方法：他们先自己制造一只价值高估的股票，然后用股票替代货币去完成高价收购。（“用我两只价值5000美元的猫买你价值10000美元的狗。”）
通常，推高股票估值的方法包括营销手段和“富有想象力”的财务报表操纵技巧，程度轻的时候这些只是骗人的把戏，程度重的时候则会演绎成成为欺诈。
当这些伎俩成功后，企业集团将自己的股价推到了3倍于其商业价值，用来收购股价2倍于其价值的公司。
这种盛世幻象可以持续很长时间。华尔街要从交易中抽佣，新闻界也喜欢公司提供的五彩缤纷的故事。甚至可以说，一只股票被推高的价格可以让幻象变成现实。
当然，潮水最终褪去的时候，我们会发现许多商业“皇帝”在裸泳。回顾金融史，许多著名的企业集团在最初被记者、分析师和投资银行家奉为商业天才，但他们最终却成了商业垃圾。企业集团的声誉因此变得很糟糕。
It took me a while to wise up. But Charlie – and also my 20-year struggle with the textile operation I inherited at Berkshire – finally convinced me that owning a non-controlling portion of a wonderful business is more profitable, more enjoyable and far less work than struggling with 100% of a marginal enterprise.
For those reasons, our conglomerate will remain a collection of controlled and non-controlled businesses. Charlie and I will simply deploy your capital into whatever we believe makes the most sense, based on a company’s durable competitive strengths, the capabilities and character of its management, and price.
If that strategy requires little or no effort on our part, so much the better. In contrast to the scoring system utilized in diving competitions, you are awarded no points in business endeavors for “degree of difficulty.” Furthermore, as Ronald Reagan cautioned: “It’s said that hard work never killed anyone, but I say why take the chance?”
花了我一些时间才明白过来。但是查理——还有我在伯克希尔继承的纺织业务上艰苦奋斗的20年——最终让我相信，拥有一家优秀企业的非控股份额要比拥有100%的边缘企业更有利可图、更令人愉快且工作量远远更小。
出于这些原因，我们的企业集团将继续保持由控股和非控股业务组成的结构。查理和我将评估公司的长期竞争优势、管理能力和特长以及价格，把您的资金投入到我们认为最有意义的领域。
如果这种策略需要我们付出很少甚至没有努力，那自然是更好。与跳水比赛所使用的评分系统相反，在商业努力中，你不会因为“难度系数”而获得加分。此外，正如罗纳德·里根（Ronald Reagan）所警告的：“据说辛勤工作从未导致任何人死去，但我想说，为什么要冒险呢？”
And bonds are not the place to be these days. Can you believe that the income recently available from a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond – the yield was 0.93% at yearend – had fallen 94% from the 15.8% yield available in September 1981? In certain large and important countries, such as Germany and Japan, investors earn a negative return on trillions of dollars of sovereign debt. Fixed-income investors worldwide – whether pension funds, insurance companies or retirees – face a bleak future.
Some insurers, as well as other bond investors, may try to juice the pathetic returns now available by shifting their purchases to obligations backed by shaky borrowers. Risky loans, however, are not the answer to inadequate interest rates. Three decades ago, the once-mighty savings and loan industry destroyed itself, partly by ignoring that maxim.
但是，现在债券也不是个好的投资方向。你能相信最近10年期美国国债的收益率（年末收益率为0.93%）比1981年9月的15.8%下降了94%吗？ 在某些重要大国，如德国和日本，投资者从数万亿美元的主权债务中获得负回报。全世界的债券投资者——无论是养老基金、保险资管还是退休金——都面临着暗淡的未来。
一些保险公司以及其他债券投资者，可能会试图转向购买由高风险借款人的债务来获取回报。然而，投资高风险贷款并不是低利率下的正确做法。三十年前，一度强大的储蓄和贷款行业毁灭了自己，部分原因是忽视了这条格言。
In no way do we think that Berkshire shares should be repurchased at simply any price. I emphasize that point because American CEOs have an embarrassing record of devoting more company funds to repurchases when prices have risen than when they have tanked. Our approach is exactly the reverse.
我们绝不认为伯克希尔的股票应该以任何价格回购。我之所以强调这一点，是因为美国的首席执行官们有一个尴尬的记录，那就是当股价上涨时，他们将更多的公司资金用于回购，而不是当股价下跌时，但我们的做法恰恰相反。
In 1958, Phil Fisher wrote a superb book on investing. In it, he analogized running a public company to managing a restaurant. If you are seeking diners, he said, you can attract a clientele and prosper featuring either hamburgers served with a Coke or a French cuisine accompanied by exotic wines. But you must not, Fisher warned, capriciously switch from one to the other: Your message to potential customers must be consistent with what they will find upon entering your premises.
1958年，菲尔·费雪写了一本关于投资的极好的书。在这篇文章中，他将经营一家上市公司比作经营一家餐厅。他说，如果你在寻找食客，你可以以搭配可口可乐的汉堡或搭配带有异国情调的葡萄酒的法国美食来获得吸引顾客成功。但是，费雪警告说，你不能随意地从一个转换到另一个：你给潜在客户的信息必须与他们进入你的场所后所发现的一致。
The tens of millions of other investors and speculators in the United States and elsewhere have a wide variety of equity choices to fit their tastes. They will find CEOs and market gurus with enticing ideas. If they want price targets, managed earnings and “stories,” they will not lack suitors. “Technicians” will confidently instruct them as to what some wiggles on a chart portend for a stock’s next move. The calls for action will never stop.
Many of those investors, I should add, will do quite well. After all, ownership of stocks is very much a “positive-sum” game. Indeed, a patient and level-headed monkey, who constructs a portfolio by throwing 50 darts at a board listing all of the S&P 500, will – over time – enjoy dividends and capital gains, just as long as it never gets tempted to make changes in its original “selections.”
Productive assets such as farms, real estate and, yes, business ownership produce wealth – lots of it. Most owners of such properties will be rewarded. All that’s required is the passage of time, an inner calm, ample diversification and a minimization of transactions and fees. Still, investors must never forget that their expenses are Wall Street’s income. And, unlike my monkey, Wall Streeters do not work for peanuts.
美国和其他地方的数千万投资者和投机者有各种各样的股票选择，以符合他们的口味。他们将会找到拥有诱人想法的首席执行官和市场专家。如果他们想要价格目标，管理收益和“故事”，他们不会缺少追求者。“技术人员”将充满信心地指导他们，告诉他们图表上的一些波动预示着股票的下一步走势。要求采取行动的呼声永远不会停止。
我要补充的是，这些投资者中的许多人会做得很好。毕竟，持有股票在很大程度上是一个“正和博弈”。事实上，一个耐心且头脑冷静的猴子，通过向标普500的上市公司投50个飞镖来构建投资组合，随着时间的推移，将享受股息和资本利得，只要它不受诱惑改变原来的“选择”。
生产性资产，如农场、房地产，当然还有企业所有权，都能产生财富——大量的财富。大多数拥有这些资产的人都会得到回报。所需要的只是时间的流逝、内心的平静、充足的多元化以及交易和费用的最小化。不过，投资者决不能忘记，他们的支出就是华尔街的收入。不过，和我的猴子不一样，华尔街的人可不是为了小钱而工作的。