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摘抄：巴菲特致股东信2023

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A common belief is that people choose to save when young, expecting thereby to maintain their living standards after retirement. Any assets that remain at death, this theory says, will usually be left to their families or, possibly, to friends and philanthropy.

Our experience has differed. We believe Berkshire’s individual holders largely to be of the once-a-saver, always-a-saver variety. Though these people live well, they eventually dispense most of their funds to philanthropic organizations. These, in turn, redistribute the funds by expenditures intended to improve the lives of a great many people who are unrelated to the original benefactor. Sometimes, the results have been spectacular.

一种普遍的看法是，人们选择在年轻时存钱，希望以此来维持退休后的生活水平。这一理论认为，死者死后留下的任何资产通常会留给家人，也有可能留给朋友和慈善机构。

我们的经历有所不同。我们认为，伯克希尔的个人股东基本上属于“一次储蓄，永远储蓄”的类型。虽然这些人生活得很好，但他们最终会把大部分资金捐给慈善机构。反过来，这些资金又通过旨在改善与原来的捐助者无关的许多人的生活的支出进行重新分配。有时，结果是惊人的。


The disposition of money unmasks humans.

金钱的处置揭示了人的本性。


When large enterprises are being managed, both trust and rules are essential.

在管理大型企业时，信任和规则都是必不可少的。

Our goal in both forms of ownership is to make meaningful investments in businesses with both long-lasting favorable economic characteristics and trustworthy managers. Please note particularly that we own publicly-traded stocks based on our expectations about their long-term business performance, not because we view them as vehicles for adroit purchases and sales. That point is crucial: Charlie and I are not stock-pickers; we are business-pickers.

我们持有股权的目的都是，对具有长期良好经济特征和值得信赖的管理者的企业进行有意义的投资。请特别注意，我们持有公开交易的股票是基于我们对其长期经营业绩的预期，并不是因为我们把它们看作是短期买卖的工具。这一点很关键；查理和我选择的不是股票，我们选择的是公司。

这段话在致股东信 2022 中出现过，2023 年再次强调，可见其重要性！！

Capitalism has two sides: The system creates an ever-growing pile of losers while concurrently delivering a gusher of improved goods and services. Schumpeter called this phenomenon “creative destruction.”

资本主义具有两面性：一方面制度造就了越来越多的失败者，但同时也带来了大量改进的商品和服务。熊彼特称这种现象为“创造性破坏”。

One advantage of our publicly-traded segment is that – episodically – it becomes easy to buy pieces of wonderful businesses at wonderful prices. It’s crucial to understand that stocks often trade at truly foolish prices, both high and low. “Efficient” markets exist only in textbooks. In truth, marketable stocks and bonds are baffling, their behavior usually understandable only in retrospect.

我们的公开交易部门的一个优势是，偶尔可以很容易地以极好的价格买到非常优秀的企业。**重要的是要明白，股票会不时地以愚蠢的价格交易，可能是高也可能是低。“有效市场”只存在于教科书中。**事实上，有市场的股票和债券令人困惑，它们的行为通常只有在回顾时才能理解。

The lesson for investors: The weeds wither away in significance as the flowers bloom. Over time, it takes just a few winners to work wonders. And, yes, it helps to start early and live into your 90s as well.

给投资者的教训是：繁花绚烂盛开，蓬蒿默然枯萎。随着时间的推移，只需要几个赢家就能创造奇迹。而且，是的，尽早开始并活到90多岁也是很有帮助的。

At Apple and Amex, repurchases increased Berkshire’s ownership a bit without any cost to us.

The math isn’t complicated: When the share count goes down, your interest in our many businesses goes up. Every small bit helps if repurchases are made at value-accretive prices. Just as surely, when a company overpays for repurchases, the continuing shareholders lose. At such times, gains flow only to the selling shareholders and to the friendly, but expensive, investment banker who recommended the foolish purchases.

苹果和美国运通的股票回购也在没有增加我们任何成本的情况下，增加了伯克希尔的持股比例。

计算过程并不复杂：当股本数量减少时，您持有的许多企业的权益都会增加。如果回购以增值价格实施，每增加一点都有帮助。同样可以确定的是，当一家公司为回购支付过高价格时，继续持有的股东会遭受损失。此时，获益的只有卖出股票的股东，以及热情推荐愚蠢购买行为但却收费高昂的投资银行家。


Gains from value-accretive repurchases, it should be emphasized, benefit all owners – in every respect.

When you are told that all repurchases are harmful to shareholders or to the country, or particularly beneficial to CEOs, you are listening to either an economic illiterate or a silver-tongued demagogue (characters that are not mutually exclusive).

需要强调的是，通过增值回购获得的收益可以惠及所有股东——在所有方面都是如此。

如果有人告诉你，所有的回购行为都对股东或国家不利，或者对CEO特别有利，此人要么是经济文盲，要么是一个巧舌如簧的煽动家（这两个角色并不互斥）。

Finally, an important warning: Even the operating earnings figure that we favor can easily be manipulated by managers who wish to do so. Such tampering is often thought of as sophisticated by CEOs, directors and their advisors. Reporters and analysts embrace its existence as well. Beating “expectations” is heralded as a managerial triumph.

最后，还有一个重要的警告：财务报表中的“运营利润”是我们非常关注的，但这些数字很容易被经理们操纵，只要他们想这样做。CEO、董事和他们的顾问通常也认为，这种篡改行为是久经世故的。而记者和分析师也接受了它的存在。毕竟，超出业绩指引也是管理上的一次胜利。

Though economists, politicians and many of the public have opinions about the consequences of that huge imbalance, Charlie and I plead ignorance and firmly believe that near-term economic and market forecasts are worse than useless. Our job is to manage Berkshire’s operations and finances in a manner that will achieve an acceptable result over time and that will preserve the company’s unmatched staying power when financial panics or severe worldwide recessions occur. Berkshire also offers some modest protection from runaway inflation, but this attribute is far from perfect. Huge and entrenched fiscal deficits have consequences.

尽管经济学家、政治家和许多公众对这种巨大失衡的后果有不同的看法，但查理和我，出于无知，还是坚信近期那些对经济和市场的预测简直毫无用处。我们的工作是以一种方式管理伯克希尔的运营和财务，这种方式将随着时间的推移取得可接受的结果，并在金融恐慌或全球严重衰退发生时保持公司无与伦比的持久力。伯克希尔还提供了一些适度的保护，以防通胀失控，但这些保护远非完美。巨大而根深蒂固的财政赤字是会带来后果的。

Thus began our journey to 2023, a bumpy road involving a combination of continuous savings by our owners (that is, by their retaining earnings), the power of compounding, our avoidance of major mistakes and – most important of all – the American Tailwind. America would have done fine without Berkshire. The reverse is not true.

就这样，我们开始了通往2023年的旅程。这是一条坎坷的道路，涉及到我们所有者不断的储蓄（即通过他们的留存收益）、复利的力量、避免重大错误，以及最重要的“美国顺风”（American Tailwind）。如果没有伯克希尔哈撒韦，美国本可以做得很好。反之，则并非如此。


At Berkshire we hope and expect to pay much more in taxes during the next decade. We owe the country no less: America’s dynamism has made a huge contribution to whatever success Berkshire has achieved – a contribution Berkshire will always need. We count on the American Tailwind and, though it has been becalmed from time to time, its propelling force has always returned.

I have been investing for 80 years – more than one-third of our country’s lifetime. Despite our citizens’ penchant – almost enthusiasm – for self-criticism and self-doubt, I have yet to see a time when it made sense to make a long-term bet against America. And I doubt very much that any reader of this letter will have a different experience in the future.

在伯克希尔，我们希望并有望在未来十年缴纳更多的税款。我们对这个国家的亏欠丝毫不减：美国的活力对伯克希尔取得的任何成功都做出了巨大贡献——伯克希尔永远都需要这种贡献。我们依靠的是美国顺风，虽然它有时会停滞不前，但它的推动力总是会回来的。

我从事投资已经80年了，超过了美国历史的三分之一。尽管我们的公民有自我批评和自我怀疑的倾向——甚至可以说是狂热——但我还没有看到什么时候有理由长期做空美国。如果这封信的读者在将来会有不同的体验，对此我将深表怀疑。

As for the future, Berkshire will always hold a boatload of cash and U.S. Treasury bills along with a wide array of businesses. We will also avoid behavior that could result in any uncomfortable cash needs at inconvenient times, including financial panics and unprecedented insurance losses. Our CEO will always be the Chief Risk Officer – a task it is irresponsible to delegate. Additionally, our future CEOs will have a significant part of their net worth in Berkshire shares, bought with their own money. And yes, our shareholders will continue to save and prosper by retaining earnings.

至于未来，伯克希尔公司将一直持有大量现金和美国国债，以及一系列业务。我们还将避免任何会在关键时刻导致现金流不便的鲁莽行为，包括在金融恐慌和前所未有的保险损失的时刻。我们的首席执行官将永远是首席风险官——尽管他（她）本不必承担这项责任。此外，我们未来的首席执行官们将有相当一部分的净资产收益是用自己的钱购买伯克希尔股票而获得的。是的，我们的股东将通过持续的获得收益来保证储蓄和繁荣。

Charlie and I think pretty much alike. But what it takes me a page to explain, he sums up in a sentence. His version, moreover, is always more clearly reasoned and also more artfully – some might add bluntly – stated.

Here are a few of his thoughts, many lifted from a very recent podcast:

  • The world is full of foolish gamblers, and they will not do as well as the patient investor.
  • If you don’t see the world the way it is, it’s like judging something through a distorted lens.
  • All I want to know is where I’m going to die, so I’ll never go there. And a related thought: Early on, write your desired obituary – and then behave accordingly.
  • If you don’t care whether you are rational or not, you won’t work on it. Then you will stay irrational and get lousy results.
  • Patience can be learned. Having a long attention span and the ability to concentrate on one thing for a long time is a huge advantage.
  • You can learn a lot from dead people. Read of the deceased you admire and detest.
  • Don’t bail away in a sinking boat if you can swim to one that is seaworthy.
  • A great company keeps working after you are not; a mediocre company won’t do that.
  • Warren and I don’t focus on the froth of the market. We seek out good long-term investments and stubbornly hold them for a long time.
  • Ben Graham said, “Day to day, the stock market is a voting machine; in the long term it’s a weighing machine.” If you keep making something more valuable, then some wise person is going to notice it and start buying.
  • There is no such thing as a 100% sure thing when investing. Thus, the use of leverage is dangerous. A string of wonderful numbers times zero will always equal zero. Don’t count on getting rich twice.
  • You don’t, however, need to own a lot of things in order to get rich.
  • You have to keep learning if you want to become a great investor. When the world changes, you must change.
  • Warren and I hated railroad stocks for decades, but the world changed and finally the country had four huge railroads of vital importance to the American economy. We were slow to recognize the change, but better late than never.
  • Finally, I will add two short sentences by Charlie that have been his decision-clinchers for decades: “Warren, think more about it. You’re smart and I’m right.”

And so it goes. I never have a phone call with Charlie without learning something. And, while he makes me think, he also makes me laugh.

I will add to Charlie’s list a rule of my own: Find a very smart high-grade partner – preferably slightly older than you – and then listen very carefully to what he says.

查理和我的想法很相似。但我花了一页纸解释的东西，他会用一句话总结出来。而且，他的版本总是更清楚地推理，也会更巧妙地——有时可能会更直言不讳地陈述。

以下是他的一些想法，很多摘自最近的播客：

  • 世界上充满了愚蠢的赌徒，他们不会像耐心的投资者那样做得好。
  • 如果你不以真实的方式看待世界，就像透过一个扭曲的镜头来判断某事物一样。
  • 我只想知道我将在哪里死去，这样我就永远不会去那里。还有一个相关的想法：早点写下你期望的讣告——然后相应地行事。
  • 如果你不在乎自己是否理性，你就不会努力。然后你会保持非理性，得到糟糕的结果。
  • 耐心是可以学会的。拥有长时间的注意力和集中精力长时间专注于一件事情是一个巨大的优势。
  • 你可以从已故的人身上学到很多东西。阅读你所钦佩和厌恶的逝者的事迹。
  • 如果你能游到一艘适航的船上，不要在下沉的船中逃跑。
  • 一个伟大的公司在你离开后仍在运作；一个平庸的公司则不会如此。
  • 沃伦和我不关注市场的繁荣。我们寻找优秀的长期投资，并坚持持有它们很长时间。
  • 本·格雷厄姆说过：“日复一日，股市是一个投票机；从长远来看，它是一个称重机。”如果你不断让某物更有价值，那么一些聪明的人就会注意到并开始购买。
  • 在投资时，没有百分之百的确定事物。因此，杠杆的使用是危险的。一串美妙的数字乘以零永远等于零。不要指望能两次致富。
  • 然而，为了变得富有，你不需要拥有很多东西。
  • 如果你想成为一位伟大的投资者，你必须不断学习。当世界发生变化时，你必须改变自己。
  • 沃伦和我几十年来一直不喜欢铁路股票，但世界发生了变化，最终美国经济有了四家对其至关重要的大型铁路公司。我们迟迟没有意识到这种变化，但迟到总比不到好。
  • 最后，我要加上查理几十年来决策的两个简短句子：“沃伦，多考虑一下。你很聪明，而我是对的。”

事情就是这样。每次与查理通电话，我都能学到一些东西。而且，虽然他让我思考，但他也让我笑。

我要在查理的列表中加上我自己的一条规则：找一个非常聪明的高水平合作伙伴，最好比你稍微年长一些，然后非常仔细地听他说的话。

更新于 2023-08-26
 投资, 巴菲特致股东信
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